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China, USA, Great Britain and the rest – Olympic medal prospects: a forecast.

China, USA, Great Britain and the rest – Olympic medal prospects: a forecast.

Professor Klaus Nielsen, Birkbeck Sport Business Centre, University of London and Senior Researcher Rasmus K. Storm, Danish Institute for Sports Studies

Attempts to predict medals per nation in the London Olympics Games abound. Some predictions are made by means of factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, size of population, and home country advantage. Other predictions are based on expert opinion. Birkbeck Sport Business Centre has, in cooperation with the Danish Institute for Sport Studies, made its own contribution to the flourishing field of medal predictions. The prediction is based on a calculation of the results from the most recent world championships in all the Olympic disciplines supplemented with current world rankings.

The study shows that China can be expected to become the best nation both in terms of gold medals and total number of medals. The host country effect will be huge. Great Britain & Northern Ireland is expected to win more than 20 gold medals and more than 60 medals in total and will end as a clear no. 4 in relation to both gold medals, number of medals and top-8 points which is a new measure applied in the study. The study includes detailed predictions for all top nations and also some other countries. For instance, it predicts that Cuba will be suffering a dramatic decline whereas New Zealand will experience a hugely successful Olympics.


China, USA, Great Britain and the rest – Olympic medal prospects: a forecast: download the PDF version of the study

A detailed summary of the study can be downloaded here.


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